Market Cycle Checklist for Individual Investors 개인 투자자를 위한 시장 사이클 체크리스트

Why You Need a Checklist

Investing without a framework is like navigating without a map. Every market feels unique in the moment — the specific catalyst always looks new. But the underlying cycle dynamics repeat. A checklist forces systematic evaluation before emotional reactions drive decisions.

This checklist is designed to be run monthly (or at any major market inflection). Each item gets a Green / Yellow / Red rating. The aggregate score gives you a cycle position.

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Section 1: Macroeconomic Conditions (4 items)

1. Yield Curve (2Y–10Y spread)

• 🟢 Green: Positive and steepening (normal, growth-supportive)
• 🟡 Yellow: Near zero or recently un-inverted
• 🔴 Red: Deeply inverted, or recently un-inverted with Fed cutting rates

2. ISM Manufacturing PMI

• 🟢 Green: Above 52 (expansion)
• 🟡 Yellow: 48–52 (flat to contraction)
• 🔴 Red: Below 48 for 3+ months

3. Initial Jobless Claims (4-week avg)

• 🟢 Green: Below 250,000, stable
• 🟡 Yellow: 250,000–300,000 or rising
• 🔴 Red: Above 300,000 or Sahm Rule triggered

4. Real Interest Rates (10Y Treasury minus CPI)

• 🟢 Green: Slightly positive (0–2%), accommodative growth environment
• 🟡 Yellow: Highly positive (>3%, restrictive) or deeply negative (<−2%, overheating)
• 🔴 Red: Rapidly rising from negative to positive (cycle tightening transition)

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Section 2: Equity Market Signals (4 items)

5. S&P 500 vs. Long-Term Log-Scale Channel

• 🟢 Green: Zone 1–3 (below midline to fair value)
• 🟡 Yellow: Zone 4 (above midline, elevated but not extreme)
• 🔴 Red: Zone 5 (near upper channel boundary, historically overextended)

6. S&P 500 vs. 200-Day Moving Average

• 🟢 Green: Price >10% above 200-DMA, 200-DMA rising
• 🟡 Yellow: Price near 200-DMA (within ±5%)
• 🔴 Red: Price below 200-DMA, 200-DMA declining (death cross)

7. Credit Spreads (High Yield vs. Treasuries)

• 🟢 Green: Below 400 bps, stable or declining
• 🟡 Yellow: 400–600 bps, widening
• 🔴 Red: Above 600 bps or rapidly widening (credit stress)

8. Earnings Revision Trend (analyst consensus)

• 🟢 Green: EPS estimates for next 12 months being revised upward
• 🟡 Yellow: Mixed revisions, no clear trend
• 🔴 Red: EPS estimates being revised down across multiple sectors

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Section 3: Sentiment Indicators (2 items)

9. CNN Fear & Greed Index

• 🟢 Green: Below 30 (Fear to Extreme Fear — accumulation opportunity)
• 🟡 Yellow: 30–60 (Neutral to mild Greed)
• 🔴 Red: Above 75 (Extreme Greed — late-cycle caution)

10. AAII Bull/Bear Spread (retail sentiment)

• 🟢 Green: Bears significantly outnumber bulls (contrarian positive)
• 🟡 Yellow: Roughly balanced
• 🔴 Red: Bulls significantly outnumber bears (contrarian negative)

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Section 4: Crypto-Specific Signals (2 items, for crypto allocations)

11. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

• 🟢 Green: Below 2 (fair value to undervalued)
• 🟡 Yellow: 2–5 (bull market, mid-cycle)
• 🔴 Red: Above 6 (historically overvalued, late-cycle)

12. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Phase

• 🟢 Green: Months 6–18 post-halving (historical bull window)
• 🟡 Yellow: Months 18–24 post-halving (approaching potential peak)
• 🔴 Red: Months 24+ post-halving or deep into cycle drawdown phase

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Scoring and Interpretation

Count your Green, Yellow, and Red ratings:

Score	Cycle Position	Suggested Posture
9–12 Green	Bull cycle, early-to-mid	Full allocation, aggressive DCA
6–8 Green	Bull cycle, maturing	Normal allocation, mild caution
4–5 Green, 4–5 Yellow	Transition, unclear	Maintain allocation, no new large bets
3–4 Green, 4–5 Red	Late cycle or bear	Defensive tilt, reduce concentration risk
0–3 Green, 6+ Red	Bear market / recession	Capital preservation, aggressive accumulation only at extreme oversold

Important Notes

This checklist is a diagnostic tool, not a trading signal generator. It tells you what phase the cycle appears to be in so you can size risk appropriately — not when to buy or sell specific assets.

Run it monthly. Track how the score changes over time. A deteriorating score over 3–4 months is more meaningful than a single month’s reading.

All content represents personal research and opinion. Not investment advice.