Bitcoin Halving Cycle: Where Are We Now? 비트코인 반감기 사이클: 지금 우리는 어디에 있나

The Question Everyone Is Asking

When Bitcoin drops sharply, the same question floods search engines: Is this the end of the bull market, or just a correction?

The short answer from four cycles of data: it depends on where you are in the halving clock. And right now, the clock says something specific.

The Halving Clock: 14 Months In

The most recent halving occurred in April 2024. As of June 2026, we are approximately 14 months post-halving.

Here is what those 14 months have looked like in prior cycles:

Cycle	Halving	Price at Halving	Price at Month 14	Change
Cycle 1	Nov 2012	~$12	~$600	+4,900%
Cycle 2	Jul 2016	~$650	~$2,500	+285%
Cycle 3	May 2020	~$8,600	~$36,000	+319%
Cycle 4	Apr 2024	~$63,000	—	in progress

The cycle 1 outlier aside, cycles 2 and 3 show a consistent pattern: the 12–18 month window after halving is marked by high volatility with an upward bias — not the end of the cycle. The true cycle peak in all three prior cases arrived at 16–22 months post-halving.

Log-Scale: Why the Channel Matters

On a linear chart, a $30,000 drop from $100,000 looks catastrophic. On a log scale, it is a 30% retracement — well within the normal drawdown range at this stage of prior cycles.

Bitcoin’s long-term log-scale regression channel (fit to weekly closes from 2011 to present) has three meaningful levels:

• Upper band: historically associated with cycle tops and peak euphoria
• Mid-line: the secular trend, roughly where price “should” be given time
• Lower band: historically associated with generational buying opportunities

A price sitting at or above the mid-line at month 14 of a halving cycle has never marked a final cycle top in prior data. It has always preceded further upside within the cycle window.

On-Chain Signals Worth Watching

Three indicators have historically clustered near Bitcoin cycle lows:

MVRV Z-Score measures the ratio of market cap to realized cap (what the market paid, not what it’s worth now). Values below 1 have historically marked bottoms. Values above 7 have marked tops. Mid-cycle corrections typically touch 2–3.

Puell Multiple tracks daily miner revenue against its 365-day moving average. When miners are under revenue stress (Puell < 0.5), it has historically coincided with or preceded bottoms. Miner capitulation clears weak hands from the supply side.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) below 1.0 signals that the average coin being moved is being sold at a loss — a classic bottom formation indicator as loss-averse holders finally sell.

Monitoring these three together, rather than price alone, provides a more structured bottom-detection framework than any single chart.

The Case for Dollar-Cost Averaging Here

I want to be transparent: I personally view the current price zone as a staged accumulation opportunity, not a terminal signal. This is not investment advice — it is my read of the data.

The logic:

1. We are in month 14 of a halving cycle that has historically run 16–22 months to peak
2. Log-scale price is not at the upper band — the cycle has structural room above it
3. On-chain indicators are not in peak euphoria territory
4. Macro headwinds (rate uncertainty) explain the current hesitation without invalidating the cycle

Dollar-cost averaging — splitting entries into 3–4 tranches over weeks — addresses the fundamental uncertainty: we cannot know if we are at the exact bottom. What we can know is that the historical distribution of outcomes from this point in the cycle has been skewed to the upside.

What Would Invalidate This View

No analysis is complete without its falsification conditions. This cycle thesis breaks if:

• Macro shock: a hard Fed pivot back to tightening, or a credit event that triggers broad risk-off
• Regulatory disruption: a major U.S. or Asian regulatory move specifically targeting BTC custody or exchanges
• On-chain breakdown: MVRV and Puell falling to levels historically associated with bear market floors (~0.8 and ~0.3 respectively) would suggest a cycle extension, not a mid-cycle correction

If any of these materialize, the framework gets updated. The data leads; the narrative follows.

Summary

The current pullback, viewed through four halving cycles of log-scale data, looks like a mid-cycle correction in month 14 of a 16–22 month cycle window. Not a top. Not a collapse. A compression before continuation — if history rhymes.

The X-axis (time) is telling you something. Don’t let the Y-axis (price) be the only thing you hear.

All content represents personal research and opinion. Not investment advice.